Professor David Green, Vice Chancellor of the University of Worcester has predicted applications from UK students to start studies in 2012 will fall by 10 per cent. He based his forecast on more than 20 years’ involvement in university applications with nine of them spent as head of an institution.
His prediction comes ahead of the publication of Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS) figures that will show how many students have applied to start university this autumn when fees rise to £9,000 a year.
Professor Green predicts that there will be a decline of 70,000 UK applicants from UK born students by summer 2012 than there were in 2011, which is a ten per cent drop, The Guardian reports.
“This would be the biggest fall in the proportion of UK students since the 1970s,” Professor Green said”, the reasons for the expected drop in applications are multifold and include the fact that the maximum fee has almost trebled to £9,000.”
“Teenagers may have been deterred from applying by mistakenly thinking they may have to pay for their fees when they register at university,” continued Professor Green. “Students pay their fees with a student loan, which they start repaying when they graduate and earn more than £21,000. Some young people now wrongly thought their employment prospects would be enhanced by skipping university and starting paid work on leaving school”.
“There has been much talking up of apprenticeships and learning a trade when opportunities for both of these are limited, he explained. In the short-term, some young people who would have gone to university will end up on benefits, in the long-term; we will have a workforce that is less skilled.”
Coupling the decline in applications, universities are expected to restrict the amount of students applying for courses, with an estimated 140,000 expected to be rejected; 210,000 applicants got turned away last year. The Government also announced last week that the number of university places available in 2012 will be cut by 15,000, as well as funding for teaching in universities to be cut by 18 per cent.
The latest statistics from UCAS, released in January showed UK applications for this autumn had slumped by almost eight per cent with 283,680 people applying from within the UK, compared with 306,908 at the same point last year.
Sally Hunt, General Secretary of the University and College Union (UCU) reported in December 2011, ‘”We believe putting financial barriers in front of young people who have been told their entire lives to aim for university is nothing more than a policy of penalising ambition.”
In response to the earlier UCAS figures, David Willetts, Universities Minister, said: “the proportion of English school leavers applying to university today is greater than ever before, barring last year. Even with a small reduction in applications, this will still be a competitive year like any other as people continue to understand that university remains a good long-term investment in your future.”
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By Olivia Bamber



